來源 | Jevons的宏觀筆記

At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. Don’t get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.

在當下，人們理所當然地將大量注意力集中在已宣布的關稅及其對市場和經濟的巨大影響上，卻很少關注導致這些關稅產生的根本原因以及未來可能出現的更大衝擊。別誤會，儘管這些關稅政策是極其重要的發展，我們都知道是特朗普總統推動了它們，但大多數人忽視了推動他當選總統並引發這些關稅的深層背景。他們同樣忽略了驅動幾乎所有事件（包括關稅）的更為重要的力量。

The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.

最需要銘記的、更重大且關鍵的是：我們正在目睹主要貨幣、政治和地緣政治秩序的經典崩潰。這種崩潰大約一生只會經歷一次，但在歷史上已多次發生，當類似的不可持續條件形成時就會重演。

More specifically:  The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on a too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can’t trust that the other major players won’t cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we’re seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.

具體而言：

1.貨幣/經濟秩序的崩潰
當前的貨幣/經濟秩序正在瓦解，原因是現有債務規模過大、債務增速過快，且資本市場和經濟體依賴這種不可持續的高額債務維持。債務不可持續的核心矛盾在於：

債務國（如美國）背負過多債務且持續舉債，依賴債務為其過度消費融資；

債權國（如中國）持有過多債務，同時依賴向債務國（如美國）出口商品以維持自身經濟。

這些失衡必然需要通過某種方式修正，而修正過程將徹底改變貨幣秩序。例如，在一個去全球化的世界中，主要參與者無法信任對方不會切斷關鍵物資供應（美國的擔憂）或無法償還債務（中國的擔憂），貿易和資本的雙重失衡顯然不可調和。這種自給自足優先的「戰爭狀態」在歷史上屢次導致類似當前的問題。因此，舊有的秩序（中國低價製造商品賣給美國，並持有美國債務資產；美國向中國借款消費並積累巨額債務）必須改變。這種不可持續的局面因美國製造業衰退而進一步惡化——美國中產階級就業機會流失，同時不得不從日益被視為「敵國」的國家進口必需品。在去全球化時代，貿易和資本的深度互聯性必須收縮。此外，美國政府債務規模及增速顯然不可持續（詳見我的新書《國家為何破產：大周期》）。

貨幣秩序將經歷重大顛覆性調整，我們正處於這一進程的早期階段，其資本市場和經濟的深遠影響將在未來逐步顯現。

The domestic political order is breaking down due to huge gaps in people’s education levels, opportunity levels, productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values—and because of the ineffectiveness of the existing political order to fix things. These conditions are manifest in win-at-all-cost fights between populists of the right and populists of the left over which side will have the power and control to run things. This is leading to democracies breaking down because democracies require compromise and adherence to the rule of law, and history has shown that both break down at times like those we are now in. History also shows that strong autocratic leaders emerge as classic democracy and classic rule of law are removed as barriers to autocratic leadership. Obviously, the current unstable political situation will be affected by the other four forces I』m referring to here—e.g., problems in the stock market and economy will likely create political and geopolitical problems.

2.國內政治秩序的崩潰
國內政治秩序正因教育、機會、生產力、收入財富水平及價值觀的巨大差距而瓦解，現有政治體系無力修復這些問題。這表現為右翼民粹主義者和左翼民粹主義者之間「不惜一切代價」的權力爭奪。民主制度正在失效，因為民主需要妥協和對法治的尊重，而歷史表明，在當前的危機時期，這兩者都會崩潰。強人專制領袖往往在此時崛起，取代傳統的民主與法治。當前不穩定的政治局勢還將受到其他力量（如股市和經濟問題）的影響，可能進一步加劇政治和地緣政治危機。

The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. The multilateral, cooperative world order the U.S. led is being replaced by a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the U.S. is still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral, “America first” approach. We are now seeing that manifest in the U.S. led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.

3.國際地緣政治秩序的崩潰
由單一主導國（美國）制定國際規則的時代已結束。美國領導的多邊合作秩序正被單邊強權規則取代。儘管美國仍是全球最大強國，但其轉向「美國優先」的單邊主義，體現在其發動的貿易戰、地緣政治戰、技術戰及部分軍事衝突中。

Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and  Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and militarily), and the costs of acts of nature.

4.自然力量（乾旱、洪水和疫情）的破壞性日益加劇

5.人工智能等技術的變革性影響
技術（如AI）將深刻改變貨幣/債務/經濟秩序、政治秩序、國際互動（經濟與軍事）及應對自然災害的成本。

Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on.  For that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big Cycles changes. If you allow yourself to be distracted by them, you will a) miss how the conditions and the dynamics of these big forces are causing these news-making changes, b) fail to think through how these news-making changes will affect these big forces, and c) fail to keep focused on how this Overall Big Cycle and the parts that drive it typically transpire, which will tell you a lot about what is likely to happen. 

我們應聚焦於這五大力量的演變及其相互作用。

因此，我敦促大家不要被關稅等吸引眼球的新聞事件分散注意力，而應深入理解驅動「大周期」變革的五大根本力量及其關聯。若被表象迷惑，你將：

• 忽視這些力量如何導致新聞事件；
• 無法預判新聞事件對力量格局的反向影響；
• 錯失通過歷史規律預判未來趨勢的機會。
  
  

 I also urge you to think about the interrelationships that are critically important. For example, think about how  Donald Trump’s actions on tariffs will affect 1) the monetary/market, economy order (it will be disruptive to it), 2) the domestic political order (it will likely be disruptive to it as it will probably undermine his support), 3) the international geopolitical order (it will be disruptive to it in many obvious ways that are financial, economic, political, and geopolitical) 4) climate (it will somewhat undermine the world』s ability to deal with the climate change issue effectively), and 5) technology development (it will be disruptive in some positive ways to the U.S., like bringing more technology production into the U.S., and in some harmful ways, like being disruptive to the capital markets that are needed to support technology development and in too many other ways to innumerate here.)

還需關注這些力量的相互關聯。 例如，特朗普的關稅政策將如何影響：

1. 貨幣/市場與經濟秩序（引發動蕩）；
2. 國內政治秩序（削弱其支持率）；
3. 國際地緣政治秩序（通過金融、經濟、政治等多渠道衝擊）；
4. 氣候變化應對（削弱全球合作）；
5. 技術發展（雖可能促進美國本土技術生產，但破壞資本市場對技術研發的支持）。
   
   

As you do this, it』s helpful to keep in mind that what is happening now is just a contemporary version of what has happened innumerable times throughout history. I urge you to study the actions that policy makers took in analogous past cases in which they found themselves in similar positions to help you build a list of things that they might do—things like suspending debt service payments to “enemy” countries, establishing capital controls to prevent the free flow of capital out of the country, and imposing special taxes. Many of these things would』ve been unimaginable not long ago, so we should also study how these policies work. The breakdowns in the monetary, political, and geopolitical orders that take the forms of depressions, civil wars, and world wars, that then lead to the new monetary, political orders that govern interactions within countries, and the geopolitical orders that govern interactions between countries until they break down, have all happened repeatedly and are the most important things to understand well. I described them in detail in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order so you can see it clearly laid out there. The Overall Big Cycle is described in six clearly identifiable stages that unfold as one order becomes the next.  It is laid out in such detail that it is easy to compare what is now happening with what typically happens, so it is possible to identify what stage the cycle is in and what is likely to come next.

以史為鑒： 當前局勢是歷史上無數次類似危機的現代版本。

建議研究過去政策制定者在類似困境中的應對措施，例如：暫停向「敵國」償還債務、實施資本管制、徵收特別稅等。這些政策曾被認為不可想像，但如今需重新評估其機制。貨幣、政治和地緣政治秩序的崩潰通常以蕭條、內戰或世界大戰的形式出現，隨後催生新的國內國際秩序——這一「大周期」在歷史中反覆上演，理解其階段至關重要。我在《應對變化中的世界秩序的原則》一書中詳細描述了這一周期的六個階段，讀者可對照當前局勢判斷所處階段及未來走向。

When I wrote that book and my other books, I hoped, as I still do, that I would be able 

1) to help policy makers understand these forces and interact with them to produce better policies so we get better results, 

2) to help individuals who can collectively but not individually affect policies to deal with these forces well so they could get better results for themselves and those they care about, and 

3) to encourage smart people who have different views than mine to have open, thoughtful exchanges with me so that we can all try to get at what is true and what to do about it.

寫作初衷： 我希望通過本書及其他著作

1. 幫助政策制定者理解並善用這些力量以制定更優政策；
2. 助力個人在集體層面推動良性政策變革；
3. 促進不同觀點者的開放討論，共同探索真相與對策。
   
   

The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater』s.

本文觀點僅代表個人，未必反映橋水基金立場。

本篇文章來源於微信公眾號:瑞恩資本RyanbenCapital